Note on foretelling the future

So, a reputable group has found evidence of foretelling the future. The results are just significant – that means they are very unlikely to have occurred by chance, certainly not impossible but unlikely to have occurred by chance. Every once in a while such results are going to happen by chance even if the method is sound and the people are honest. That is the nature of statistics. I am not going to take this seriously until it has been repeated enough times, with enough variation in method and people, to be convincing to a level similar to its scientific opposite. And my reason is: that to accept this esp is to throw away almost everything else I currently accept in science, philosophy, history and common sense. It is just too big an ask on too little evidence.

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